No Canada-U.S. trade deal expected before American midterm elections: sources

Katie Simpson · CBC News

· Posted: Oct 20, 2026 3:01 PM EDT | Last Updated: 8 minutes ago

The Canada-U.S. trade war is poised to grind on for the foreseeable future, as sources tell CBC News hope of a deal before the American midterm elections has completely faded.

According to three sources with knowledge of the situation, Canadian government officials have been informing industry groups over the past few weeks that there is no expectation a deal can be reached before the Nov. 3 vote. 

There is no substantial engagement at this time, according to the sources, even though officials from both countries remain in contact. 

The sources have also been told that the White House is fully immersed in the election campaign. U.S. President Donald Trump is spending much of his time on the road holding rallies, as polls suggest his Republican Party is facing an uphill battle to maintain control of the House and possibly even the Senate. 

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CBC News agreed not to name the sources as they were not authorized to speak publicly about this active and sensitive issue. 

"There was some optimism within some parts of the [federal] government and in certain parts of Canadian industry that we might have seen a deal ahead of the midterms," said Brian Clow, who was former prime minister Justin Trudeau's deputy chief of staff.

"But that window appears to be entirely closed."

The optimism was rooted in the idea that because the trade war with Canada is unpopular with some American voters — those who blame Trump's trade and tariff policies for an increase in the cost of living — the Trump administration would be motivated to cut a deal.

The trade war with Canada is unpopular enough that some Republican candidates have distanced themselves from the president and his agenda. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine is among the Republicans who have publicly pushed back as she finds herself in a tight re-election race. 

Trump will keep Trumping, regardless of result

Whatever the results of the midterm elections may be, Clow said that Canadians should not anticipate much change when it comes to trade. 

He suggests the Democrats taking power away from Republicans would provide "a marginal benefit to Canada" at best.

He says Trump could be distracted if a Democrat-led House or Senate launches investigations into his administration. They also could pass legislation that attempts to rein in some of Trump's policies. 

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