Quebecers are casting their votes today in provincial elections that could see a new party form a government.
Polls are projecting the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) is positioned to form the next government as citizens across 127 ridings cast their votes following two consecutive majority terms under the centre-right Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
Pollster 338Canada says the PQ has a 99 percent chance of winning the most seats in Quebec’s legislature and is forecasting a minority government led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has pledged a referendum on sovereignty once U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House in 2029.
The last time the PQ formed government was Pauline Marois’s brief, two-year minority administration from 2012 to 2014.
St-Pierre Plamondon is facing a lineup that includes CAQ Leader and incumbent Christine Fréchette, Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, Quebec Conservative Leader Éric Duhaime, and Québec solidaire co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal.
The 39-day campaign has seen the leaders travel across the province, with economic uncertainty, the rising cost of living, and the possibility of another sovereignty referendum among the key issues.
Here’s a look at what each party stands for and the predictions experts are making for their performance.
PQ
St-Pierre Plamondon secured the PQ leadership in 2020 after pledging to hold a sovereignty referendum during the first mandate of a PQ government. Ahead of this year’s election campaign, he announced that he would postpone a referendum until after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office.
Recent polling shows about 30 percent of Quebecers support separation, down from the 49.4 percent who voted for independence in the 1995 referendum.
St-Pierre Plamondon has outlined an agenda for his first 100 days in office that would include a special budget for homelessness, streamlining bureaucratic processes, eliminating taxes on used goods, reducing the gas tax and directing resources to community organizations and food banks.
He has also criticized what he calls “uncontrolled immigration” during the campaign, linking immigration levels to the province’s housing shortage, the decline of French-language usage, challenges in the education system, and pressure on public services.
Polling aggregator 338Canada and a Léger/Le Journal/TVA survey conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 1 both put PQ support at about 29 percent. 338Canada’s latest projection gives the party 62 seats, with a projected range of 52 to 73 seats.
CAQ
Coalition Avenir Québec Leader and incumbent Christine Fréchette has said her party stands alone in presenting an alternative to the province’s traditional sovereigntist-federalist divide, by championing nationalism and economic prosperity as part of Canada.
She told reporters she is proud of how she ran her campaign, but also expressed regret about not focusing more on the referendum’s potential dangers.
“It’s important for people to realize this, because it’s not just a decision that could affect Quebec in three years,” she said during an Oct. 4 campaign stop in Shawinigan. “There will be impacts because uncertainty will become part of Quebec’s political and economic calendar.”
Frechette has said Trump and the impact of his tariffs on the province is a key issue in the vote, and has portrayed her party as best able to deal with the impact of Ottawa’s trade conflict with Washington.
Fréchette has been trailing in the polls at a time when 77 percent of Quebecers polled have said they want a change in government and a new party to lead the province, according to the Leger/Le Journal/TVA survey.
The survey is forecasting Fréchette’s party will win just 14 percent of the popular vote. 338Canada is predicting the CAQ will win 16 percent of the popular vote but that it will not translate into any seats in the legislature.
Liberals
Liberal Leader Charles Milliard has positioned his party as the only federalist option and has called on voters seeking to prevent a PQ government to strategically cast their ballots for his candidates.
The Liberals have 24 percent of the popular vote, according to 338Canada, while Leger’s poll puts them at 25 percent. Both polls show them four to five percentage points behind the PQ.
Milliard has argued that a PQ minority government would actively pursue backing for a referendum from the other political parties.
“One party that Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon won’t be calling up is Liberal Party of Quebec, because we’re proudly federalist and not ashamed to say it,” he said at an Oct. 4 campaign stop in St-Victor.
Milliard told reporters that his party had built considerable momentum from the campaign’s inception and suggested that Liberal support was probably being “underestimated” in some parts of the province.
Conservatives
The Conservatives have not previously won a seat under Duhaime’s leadership, but they are expected to make a breakthrough that could give them official party status in the National Assembly for the first time since the current iteration of the party formed in 2009.
Duhaime has been campaigning to increase his party’s representation in the legislature. He has said he would use that representation to serve as a “guard dog” for taxpayers’ financial interests and oppose another sovereignty referendum.
Duhaime told reporters he has “confidence” his party will secure at least 12 seats to obtain official party status, after winning none in the last election.
Both 338Canada and Leger are predicting the party will take 20 percent of the popular vote. 338Canada is also forecasting the party will secure roughly 19 seats in the legislature.
Quebec Solidaire
Québec solidaire spokesperson Ruba Ghazal launched a closing appeal on Oct. 4, targeting progressive sovereigntist voters who reject what she described as the “austerity” measures proposed by the PQ, Duhaime’s Conservatives, and other parties.
“Send a signal that not all of Quebec has swung to the right or turned conservative, and also send people who will be the only ones to stand up to Éric Duhaime’s influence in the next parliament,” she said.
Both 338Canada and Leger are forecasting Québec solidaire will win 11 percent of the popular vote and 33 Canada is also predicting it will take nine seats in the legislature.
Élections Québec has said nearly 25 percent of voters have already cast their ballots in advance polls. The polls close today at 8 p.m.
The Canadian Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
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