Defeat of Serbia’s Pro-China Leader a ‘Significant Setback’ for Beijing: Analyst

The result undermined the personal political ties Beijing relied on and exposed Chinese investments there to tougher scrutiny, analysts said.

After the election, thousands of Serbian students and supporters gathered on Nov. 1 to mark the second anniversary of the Chinese-built train station disaster in Novi Sad, Serbia’s second-largest city.

Vucic’s fall from power “represents a significant setback for Beijing’s influence in the Balkans,” according to Sun Kuo-hsiang, a professor in international affairs and business at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, who spoke with The Epoch Times.

Vucic, long seen as Beijing’s staunchest ally in Europe, made Serbia the continent’s first country to agree to build a “community with a shared future,” a signature slogan of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s diplomacy.

But after the Student List—an alliance of academics, experts, and political newcomers—won an outright majority with about 140 of the 250 seats in Serbia’s parliament, the incoming government’s China policy remains unclear.

The alliance’s September election program pledged to root out corruption, publish all government contracts, and audit opaque or overpriced infrastructure projects, a review that could reach those built by Chinese companies.

Serbia’s new parliament must convene within 30 days of the final results, and a new prime minister and cabinet must be elected within 90 days of that first session.

Sun said Beijing’s primary objective now will be to protect existing investments and preserve its economic influence.

“The Novi Sad railway station tragedy has made Chinese-backed infrastructure projects politically sensitive, so Beijing may face demands for greater transparency and accountability,” he said.

Stefan Vladisavljev, program director of the Foundation BFPE for a Responsible Society, said Beijing would emphasize continuity, mutual economic benefits, and respect for Serbia’s political choices in its dealings with the Student List.

“The crucial adjustment for China would be moving from privileged access through political leadership toward cooperation mediated by institutions,” Vladisavljev told The Epoch Times.

“That could preserve substantial engagement, but make its terms less politically convenient.”

Still, China’s influence is embedded in factories, infrastructure, financing arrangements, and trade relations that will outlast Vucic’s rule, according to Vladisavljev.

BRI Under Scrutiny  

Vladisavljev said the immediate challenge to the BRI in Serbia is that an accountability agenda could expose arrangements “previously shielded from public scrutiny.”

“For China, the difficulty would be losing a political environment in which major projects could be negotiated directly and presented as achievements before their full costs and obligations were publicly understood,” he said.

“Reviews could delay projects, trigger renegotiations, or undermine support for new borrowing.”

However, scrutiny should not automatically “mean cancellation” of Chinese projects, Vladisavljev said.

The BRI has already faltered elsewhere in Europe.

A highway connecting the city of Bar on Montenegro’s Adriatic coast to landlocked neighbor Serbia, north of Montenegrin capital Podgorica, is being constructed by a state-owned Chinese company, on April 8, 2019. Savo Prelevic/AFP via Getty Images

Sun said Serbia’s political transition could bring Chinese investment under EU-style rules on public procurement, environmental protection, and foreign investment screening.

“This would make it more difficult for Chinese companies to rely on preferential government agreements and politically negotiated infrastructure contracts,” he said.

“Serbia could therefore become an important test of whether China can adapt its infrastructure diplomacy to a more demanding European political environment.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the Student List’s victory in a post on X on Oct. 26, as the EU moved quickly to draw Serbia closer.

“We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union,” Von der Leyen said.

Eroding Trust 

Vladisavljev said the BRI’s repeated failures could erode trust between China and Europe, especially where governments have promoted Chinese projects as symbols of progress.

“Diplomatic relationships may survive, while public confidence and support for future projects deteriorate,” he said.

Rescuers work amid the wreckage after a construction crane fell onto a passenger train in Nakhon Ratchasima province, Thailand, on Jan.14, 2026. Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo

Such accidents won’t necessarily end BRI cooperation in Europe, given the economic appeal of Chinese investment, but they could make governments warier of Beijing’s loans, Sun said.

“The fundamental challenge for Beijing is that economic influence can no longer guarantee political loyalty or public acceptance,” he said.

China may therefore need to shift from leader-centered infrastructure diplomacy toward more transparent, institution-based cooperation, according to Sun.

“Otherwise, Serbia’s experience could become a warning to other European partners that the political costs of poorly governed infrastructure projects may outweigh their economic benefits,” he said.