Cory Morgan: The Timing of the New Oil Pipeline Plan Announcement

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney hold a press conference in Fort McMurray, Alta., on Oct 1, 2026. The Canadian Press/Greg Halinda

Commentary

The timing of Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney’s announcement declaring the Pacific Link Pipeline project in the national interest feels political.

The deadline for such an announcement was set for Oct. 1, but nothing prevented them from making it sooner if they chose. Some of the intent of the choice of date was surely inspired by the upcoming referendum in Alberta, where citizens could potentially choose to start down the path of provincial independence. With advance voting beginning soon, the leaders wanted to demonstrate federal-provincial unity and that major projects can move forward in Canada.

Did the announcement swing many voters, though, and which way?

Dedicated supporters of the provincial independence side of the issue are likely unmoved. They have given up on the federation, and there’s little the premier or prime minister could do to move them from their position. Likewise, committed federalists won’t see any reason to change voting intentions. The mushy middle of Albertans who feel alienated but aren’t sold on independence yet could be influenced, though not necessarily in the way some may imagine.

Some may see the pipeline announcement as a victory and feel there is no need to express discontent further through voting to support independence. Some others may see the pipeline as a result of the pressure exerted by the holding of the referendum and vote strategically to continue the process toward provincial independence to maintain leverage with Ottawa. The vote facing Albertans is non-binding, and people could be considering using it to twist the arm of the federal government without an actual intent to separate in the long run. Those camps may cancel each other out, leading to the pipeline issue being a wash as far as changing how the referendum results may go.

Polls indicate the independence side of the referendum question is unlikely to garner more than 50 percent of the vote on Oct. 19. Even if the majority of Albertans select the federalist option on voting day, the underlying issues that led to the referendum in the first place remain unresolved, and the independence movement won’t be going away. Concerns over democratic representation, equalization, and federal overreach will still be a large part of Alberta’s political discourse. Getting a new pipeline to the West Coast doesn’t solve those issues, but the pipeline has become a strong symbol in the debate. If it can be completed, it will signal that federalism can still work even if it offers a bumpy ride. If it stalls, it could foster a sense of futility among Albertans.

Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney have invested heavy political capital in the pipeline.

Carney holds a slim majority government, with many members remaining from the Trudeau era who oppose the construction of new pipelines. He may face internal caucus discord over the pursuit of the line when he can ill-afford division. The project may help the NDP under Avi Lewis to corner a larger part of the environmentalist vote, as he has taken a solid stance against the pipeline. The weakness of the federal NDP has served the Liberal Party well, and giving them a political beachhead to rebuild a base of support could change the electoral picture.

Smith has been trying to maintain a delicate balance between independence supporters and federalists within her own party. Many skeptical conservatives feel her cooperation with the prime minister to build a predominantly state-owned pipeline is a form of capitulation rather than a victory. They also don’t believe it will actually be built. The published path still runs through conditions not yet set, a review ending around September 2027, port upgrades, and a route into a province whose premier has opposed a new line. Cost estimates sit in the mid-$30 billion to low-$40 billion range, with governments still among the proponents.

If construction actually starts close to the planned timetable, the grievance that has sustained Western alienation loses its sharpest example. A built Pacific Link does not end arguments over equalization or jurisdiction, but it removes the claim that Ottawa will never allow another export pipeline.

However, if the designation is followed by the familiar delays with court challenges, a B.C. standoff, a private proponent who never fully appears, or a missed 2027 date, frustration in Alberta will redouble and secessionism will re-emerge more fiercely than ever. Smith’s leadership of the UCP would also be in peril, as Albertan conservatives have a habit of ejecting leaders from within rather than in general elections.

The Oct. 19 question will not be settled by a press conference. It will be settled by whether enough soft voters believe the federation just changed its behaviour, or believe the only reason it appeared to change is that “Option 2” was on the ballot. Both Smith and Carney have spent credibility on the first reading. The second is there for anyone who remembers how many pipelines were approved and never built.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.