Expert civil servants warned that Britain's domestic food supply is on a "decline and collapse trajectory", reports suggest.

09:05, Wed, Mar 25, 2026 Updated: 09:05, Wed, Mar 25, 2026

Farmer in tractor with son watching sheep in field

The Government reportedly ignored warnings of a 'collapse' in UK food security by 2030 (Image: Getty)

Labour ministers are said to have ignored a report warning that Britain's food supply is at risk of "catastrophic failure" by 2030. The report cited climate change, habitat loss and geopolitical instability among the contributing factors to a loss of UK food security by the end of the decade. The document, based on dozens of scientific papers, was commissioned by civil servants at the Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) before the general election in 2024.

It was finished in the same year, with researchers in the Defra Futures team concluding that alongside Britain's food supply, its water and international trade networks were "almost certain" to be "on a decline and collapse trajectory", according to The Times. The report said that, as a result, there was a "realistic possibility that by 2030 (increasing to 2050) our food, water and natural ecosystems (etc.) are at strategic risk of catastrophic failure".

Labour Conference 2025 Day Two

Labour officials reportedly ignored the bombshell report on the future of UK food supply (Image: Getty)

While the document was commissioned to inform the incoming Labour Government, Defra reportedly did not include it in its handover briefings.

The Defra Futures team, a group of expert civil servants, was reportedly disbanded in spring 2025.

The Government then claimed to have no record of the report in response to a Freedom of Information (FOI) request by Rupert Read, co-director of the Climate Majority Project campaign group.

The UK grew approximately 57% of the food it consumed in 2024, with 25% imported from the European Union (EU) and 18% from the rest of the world.

News of the allegedly ignored report followed fresh warnings from the National Farmers Union (NFU) that food prices in the UK are likely to spike as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw said Iran's continued stranglehold on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was causing higher fuel and fertiliser prices, both crucial aspects of food production.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the US-Israeli war with Iran "will turn the world supply upside down" and have a "dramatic impact" on global food networks.

The IGD (Institute of Grocery Distribution) also warned that UK households could face food inflation above 8% within months if disruption in the Middle East persists.

The institute said its highest impact scenario would mean a "short-lived but severe" increase in food prices, with inflation rising to around 6.4% across 2026 and more than £150 added to the average household's annual grocery bill as a result.

UK retail food prices are already around 38% higher than pre-Covid levels following energy price surges linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A Defra spokesperson said: "Food security is national security, and our high degree of food security is built on both strong domestic production and imports through stable trade routes.

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"This government is investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields, develop climate resilient crops as part of our commitment to maintain food production levels and help farmers produce more food.

"Alongside this, we are increasing our water supply by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years, ensuring our food and water security is safeguarded for the future."