What would a second Trump presidency look like?

WASHINGTON: A second Trump presidency would have grim repercussions for the United States, and could bring about major global changes from security to immigration, said observers. 

With American voters heading to the ballot box in about six months to choose their next president, the November vote is shaping up to be a rematch between Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and the Republican flag bearer Donald Trump.

Recent polls suggest a close race between both sides, with former president Trump having a slight edge over his rival. 

A MORE RADICAL, VINDICTIVE TERM? 

Mr Trump, who occupied the White House before Mr Biden, has put forward his priorities that include deporting migrants crossing the border illegally - something he often calls an “invasion”. 

He has also threatened to gain more control of the US Federal Reserve and the Department of Justice, which is leading high-profile criminal cases against him. 

Washington-based think tank Heritage Foundation has created a playbook for a second Trump presidency, including the replacement of many civil servants with loyalists of the Republican leader. Some of these Trump allies have far-right views.

Many of his supporters still falsely believe he won the last presidential election in November 2020.

Mr Trump has said he is considering pardons for people convicted over the Jan 6, 2021 US Capitol attack, when some of his supporters stormed Congress to try and overturn the results.

THREATENING TO ABANDON ALLIES

On foreign policy, observers said that the US cannot sustain all its commitments in various regions and will have to make hard choices soon.

Mr Trump has frequently highlighted the failure of some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to commit a minimum of 2 per cent of their gross domestic product to defence spending.

“I think there is a recognition that the Europeans do have to increase defence spending, to rebuild their industrial defence capability, so that the US can step back (and) let Europeans take care of European security and give priority to the Indo-Pacific,” said Dr Adrian Ang, research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). 

Out of the 32 NATO member states, 20 now meet that 2 per cent target and are focused on supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.

Mr Trump has threatened that he would not defend NATO allies who failed to spend enough on defence, and would even encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want”.

“I think that's more of a scare tactic to get the Europeans to sit up and finally pay their fair share,” Dr Ang, who is also the US programme coordinator at RSIS’ Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, told CNA’s Asia Tonight on Tuesday (May 7). 

Enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s founding document, is the principle of collective defence, where an attack on one member is considered an attack on all of them.

Calling this principle into question - as Mr Trump has repeatedly done, including in recent months - undermines the credibility of NATO’s pledge, said Dr Constanze Stelzenmüller.

A new law passed last year prohibits a president from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-thirds Senate majority or an act of Congress, noted Dr Stelzenmüller, who is director of the Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe.

CLIMATE CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER TRUMP PRESIDENCY

Observers noted that Mr Trump is known for his mercurial nature and unpredictability. 

For instance, Mr Trump has denied climate science and even called global warming a hoax, though he later acknowledged that humans bear some blame.

There are worries a second Trump presidency could walk back Mr Biden’s pro-environment policies, and again pull the US out of the Paris climate agreement to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

Neighbouring Canada is paying close attention to the White House race, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arguing that a Trump win could harm the fight against climate change globally.