Marriage and fertility rates are on the decline in Canada, a newly released report suggests.
The number of single, never-been-married adults has increased substantially since 2001 among those 45 and younger, and is becoming particularly common among those under the age of 30, according to the report from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. And that decline in marriage has directly impacted fertility rates, with the country hitting a record low as more and more women put off or forgo having children.
Despite the growing number of single adults, the study also found that marriage comes with numerous benefits for men and women. These benefits extend not just to the couple, but to their offspring as well.
“Married people live longer and have better mental health and well-being than non-married people, even common-law couples,” writes author Tim Sargent.
Children in two-parent households have a “much higher standard of living” than children in one-parent families, even with benefits and child support considered, Mr. Sargent said, adding that children raised by both of their original parents tend to have “better life outcomes” than children raised by one parent or in stepfamilies.
“Despite these advantages, fewer people in Canada are getting married or cohabiting, and those that do are having fewer children,” Mr. Sargent said.
Decline in Marriage Rates
The number of adults 20 and older who are married has dropped from 54 percent in 2001 to 47.4 percent in 2021, the study found. While the decline was partially offset by an increase in common-law relationships, which have risen 3 percent, it was not enough to offset the decline in marriage rates.
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Adults in couples, either married or common-law, also declined, falling from 64.1 percent in 2001 to 60.8 percent in 2021.
The decline could not be attributed to either divorce or widowhood, the report found. Instead, it was driven by an increase in the number of adults who are remaining single.
“While an increase of 3.7 percentage points over 20 years is not dramatic, the picture changes when we break down the data by five-year age groups,” the report reads. “For the 35–39 and 40–45 age groups, the proportion of couples has dropped by only 2 percent between 2001 and 2021. However, for younger age groups there has been a much steeper decline.”
Those aged 30 to 34 who are in a couple dropped 5.3 percentage points, while the number dropped by 10.9 points for those aged 25 to 29.
That means, as of 2021, more than half of young adults in the 25 to 29 age bracket were single and had never been married.
Older age groups are also seeing a significant increase in never-married adults. This proportion has risen from 17.2 percent to 23 percent for 35- to 39-year-olds, and from 12.9 percent to 18.5 percent for 40- to 44-year-olds.
Another growing trend is the number of adult Canadians living with their parents, the study found. An increasing number of adults in their late twenties “and beyond,” are choosing to live at home.
The number of Canadians with this lifestyle is higher per capita than those choosing to do so in the United States or the United Kingdom, two countries that are culturally comparable to Canada.
These trends can be explained in part by the country’s affordability crisis, the report says, adding that cost of living continues to be a larger problem in Canada than in the U.S. or the UK.
Despite a rise in incomes of young adults, the substantial increase in housing prices and rent over the last 15 years makes leaving home difficult for many.
Another factor in young adults living at home is mental well-being, the study found.
“The nature and impact of broader social and cultural trends is hard to measure, but it is clear that there has been a marked reduction in the mental health of young adults, and a corresponding rise in anxiety about the future,” Mr. Sargent said.
Fertility
As marriage and cohabitation rates fall, so too does the fertility rate.
Canada’s birth rate is at its lowest level ever—coming in significantly below rates in the U.S. and the UK—and the third-lowest fertility rate in the G7. Canada’s fertility rate, which sat at 1.6 births per woman in 2016 fell to 1.3 in 2022.
The 2022 fertility rate for women aged 20-24 was less than half what it was in 2008, while the fertility rate for women 25-29 was only two-thirds of 2008’s level. Also, women aged 40-44 are now more than twice as likely to give birth than a teen.
The fertility rate is directly tied to the decline in marriage, the study argues.
“Unsurprisingly, the total fertility rate for married women is much higher than for unmarried women, as most women prefer to have the security of a committed partner before having a family,” the report reads.
The impact of the steady decline in marriage on fertility combined with married women having fewer children has had a significant overall impact, according to the study.
Among two-adult households who do have children, a significant portion will separate. At least one-third of Canadian children will see their families break up by the time they are 14, and more than one-quarter live in single-parent households.
While the number of children in single-parent homes has remained stable in recent years, it is higher than rates in the United States, the UK, or France.
Future Implications
The growing number of singles has implications both for Canada’s fertility rate and for the overall fiscal health of the country, the study says, pointing out that lower birth rates will eventually impact population and overall productivity.
“Given the clear individual and social benefits of marriage and children, there is a case for making sure that public policy does not impede—and preferably promotes—family formation and fertility,” Mr. Sargent said.
“Clearly such policies would need to target housing affordability but would likely need to go beyond this to engage with some of the broader social and cultural trends prevalent among young Canadians, particularly anxiety about the future.”
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